This game is pretty cut and dry if you ask me. Both teams know each other extremely well and run the same offense, the triple option. It comes down to who can run the ball and who can stop the run. In those categories these two teams are pretty even. Army a little better at running and Navy a little better at stopping it, but a lot can be said about those stats with strength of schedules and types of offenses each other has played. I look more at their 3rd down and RZ defense can these two stop each other when it counts, and even 4th downs matter in this game because Army has gone for it on 4th down 33 times while Navy 28 times.
Army comes out ahead in most of these key categories and their schedule was not all that easy facing 8 of 11 teams that are bowl eligible. Army ran the ball over 5 yards per carry vs. every opponents but the first when they were 4.91 ypc vs. Northern Illinois. Navy on the other hand was held under 4 ypc twice and 5 another time. Vs. their common opponent Air Force, Navy allowed 5.44 yards per carry while Army allowed 3.31 ypc on 54 carries. In terms of 3rd down conversions Navy comes in at 47.7% while Army 44.9%, defensively Army 49.2% and Navy at 51%, small advantage to Army there, but on 4th down it's a different story, as Army 54.5% conversions and Navy just 46% and defensively Army allowed 37% on 4th down while Navy 61%.
Red Zone, who can turn the possessions into TD's, well Army has 70.45% on their 44 attempts, Navy 43 attempts have 63% TD's and defensively the two are relatively even 75% to 73% in favor of Navy, but Army has only allowed 37 attempts while Navy has allowed 52 attempts. Navy does not have the same LB crew they have had in years past to dominate against the run and Army just seems to be sick of losing 9 times in a row this is clearly their best shot at pulling the upset. I wouldn't say a service academy could have any sort of a let down, but if any team is going to have a let down it's Navy after losing to San Jose State they became bowl ineligible. This game is both Navy and Army's bowl game, but Navy is used to going to a real bowl game in 8 straight years so you have to wonder if they can match the intensity early vs. Army.
